Some pro-government economic experts and development analysts seem upbeat about a possible upturn of the Nigerian economy in 2025 despite the dire economic upheaval recorded in 2024. The government’s forecast, across economic parameters, envisioned recovery, stability, and growth, based on the surgical and deep-vein cleansing twin policies of oil subsidy removal and floating the naira.

The year under review came with the ‘Budget of Renewed Hope’ falling below expectations and turned out to be the worst for the country in recent times given the worsening economic realities.

The poverty bracket expanded as Nigerians groaned under the crushing weight of untamable headline inflation with a 28-year record high, perplexing exchange rates, crushing interest rates, insecurity, irreconcilable unemployment figures, and arrays of endless calamities.

The concomitant effects of these economic reforms foisted on Nigerians without a well-thought-out roadmap, remediation or interventions to absorb such radical shocks on a near-comatose economy left behind by the Muhammadu Buhari administration sparked a hunger protest that swept the country.

The year 2024 was the fall year for reworking the foundation of the economic superstructure but will such massive deep-cleansing set in motion the possibilities for economic recovery, reengineering, and repositioning in 2025? These possibilities seem odd because all national economic performance indicators nose-dived in 2024.

So, the economic outlook in 2025 is a mixed bag with extremities. A sluggish economic growth, with GDP growth projections ranging from 2.53% to 3.64%, is likely, the services sector could remain the main driver of economic growth, but job creation may not be significant. Meanwhile, growth opportunities exist in various sectors, including agriculture, technology, oil and gas, etc.

Fuel pump prices may further improve as Dangote and Port Harcourt Refineries could ramp up production. The government could also deepen CNG use, a development which would positively impact the cost of transportation if the government is truly serious about the project.

Another critical possibility in 2025 is the unbundling of the Nigerian Police Force with the introduction of the state police units and the National Tax Reform Bills scaling through the National Assembly; this will set in motion the enshrinement of true and fiscal federalism and trigger national rebirth and sustainable growth. So, haters of the bills should look at the bigger picture.

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