Africa’s smartphone market is projected to see cautious growth of 1% in 2025, highlighting the need for sustained efforts to unlock its potential, according to Canalys research.

Market Resilience Amid Economic Complexities

As of Q3 2024, the market grew by 3% year-on-year, reaching 18.4 million units, showcasing resilience despite economic challenges such as inflation, energy volatility, and subdued consumer demand. However, rising operational costs, infrastructure deficits, and food inflation continue to hamper growth.

Key Market Highlights (Q3 2024):

• TRANSSION (TECNO | iTel | Infinix): Maintains dominance with a 50% market share, driven by iTel’s 34% surge and affordable offerings.
• Samsung: Faces a 30% decline due to reduced demand, particularly in South Africa.
• Xiaomi: Achieved 13% growth, supported by affordable models like the Redmi 14C.
• realme: Gained traction with 101% growth, appealing to younger consumers with value-driven products.
• OPPO: Recorded 22% growth, driven by popular A60 and A3 series models.
• HONOR: Achieved remarkable growth of 287%, fueled by local initiatives and manufacturing investments.

Country-Specific Insights

1. Nigeria:
   Recorded a modest 1% growth despite a 69.9% depreciation of the Naira from January to September. Improved currency stabilization in August contributed to easing pressures on consumer demand.
2. South Africa:
   Smartphone shipments dropped by 10%, ending six quarters of double-digit growth. Economic uncertainty overshadowed the benefits of easing inflation and lower interest rates.
3. Kenya:
   A 10% decline was attributed to high fuel costs, production challenges, and economic fallout from anti-finance bill protests.
4. Egypt:
   Led the region with 34% growth, driven by localized production that drastically reduced import dependency and slashed smartphone import costs by 99% to $1.65 million in H1 2024.
5. Morocco:
   Saw a 24% decline due to increased import taxes introduced earlier in the year.

Affordability and Accessibility: A Double-Edged Sword

The surge in sub-$100 smartphones (up 35%) reflects affordability challenges. While feature phones still accounted for 55% of total shipments, high device taxes pose a dilemma for policymakers between immediate revenue generation and fostering long-term smartphone adoption.

“The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones declined by 6% in Q3 2024, emphasizing affordability as a key growth driver,” noted Manish Pravinkumar, Senior Analyst at Canalys.

Future Outlook

Africa’s smartphone market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from 2024 to 2028, with 4G expected to remain the primary driver of mobile subscriptions.

Pravinkumar highlighted that service providers are shifting resources from 2G and 3G to 4G and 5G networks, creating opportunities for digital transformation. However, success will depend on partnerships between governments, vendors, and service providers to address structural hurdles while balancing short-term revenue needs with long-term goals.

“With innovative financing models, affordable devices, and expanding 4G networks, Africa has the potential to accelerate its digital transformation and lay the groundwork for a connected, inclusive, and economically dynamic future,” Pravinkumar concluded.

ACCOMPLISH MAGAZINE